Financials in Sweet Spot While Defence Remains a Structural Bet

Market expert Dharmesh Kant of Cholamandalam Securities suggests that financial institutions are poised to lead the next market rally, driven by improving net interest margins and robust credit growth. While a short-term relief rally is expected through June and July, long-term structural bets in defence and healthcare offer significant upside potential for investors.

Financials: The Engine of the Next Market Rally

According to Kant, the financial sector is currently in a "sweet spot," making it the primary candidate to spearhead the next phase of market growth. This optimism is rooted in strengthening earnings dynamics, specifically through improving Net Interest Margins (NIMs) and healthy loan demand.

Notably, Kant pointed out that even potential interest rate hikes could act as a tailwind for financials rather than a headwind. The sector is also seeing a recovery in microfinance lending and benefiting from lower funding costs. Furthermore, government support mechanisms are expected to safeguard asset quality, providing a cushion even if broader economic conditions soften.

Defence and Healthcare: Insulated Structural Plays

While much of the Indian market is sensitive to the monsoon season—which Kant warns currently looks "scary"—certain sectors remain insulated from such climate-related volatility. He identifies defence and healthcare as primary safe havens.

The defence sector, in particular, is viewed as a "structural growth story" fueled by massive order inflows and the push for indigenisation. Kant remains highly bullish on this space, suggesting a potential upside of 40% to 50% over a two-to-three-year horizon. Specific high-conviction names include:

In the healthcare space, Kant expects steady performance across hospital chains, diagnostics, and pharmacy segments.

Sectors to Avoid: Oil, Metals, and Expensive Consumption

ينصح "كانت" بالحذر تجاه عدة قطاعات، لا سيما تلك المرتبطة بالاستهلاك والسلع الأساسية. كما يظل متوجساً من قطاع المعادن والشركات الموجهة نحو الاستهلاك بسبب نقص وضوح الرؤية.

ومن المثير للاهتمام أنه على الرغم من انخفاض أسعار النفط الخام، إلا أنه يحافظ على موقف سلبي تجاه شركات تسويق النفط (OMCs) ومنتجي النفط، واصفاً إياهم بأنهم "قطاع في طور الأفول" (sunset sector). ويتوقع مزيداً من الضغوط النزولية على أسعار الخام في حال زيادة صادرات النفط الإيرانية، مما قد يؤدي إلى فائض في المعروض العالمي.

وفيما يتعلق بالمستفيدين غير المباشرين من انخفاض أسعار النفط، يفضل "كانت" مصنعي الإطارات على شركات الطلاء. فبينما تُعتبر أسهم شركات الطلاء حالياً ذات تقييمات مرتفعة، من المتوقع أن تستفيد شركات الإطارات من استقرار أسعار المطاط والطلب القوي على السيارات.

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