Ndoto ya Hazina ya Crypto Inaporomoka: Kwa Nini Muungano wa SPAC Unafeli

Mtindo wa biashara wenye malengo makubwa wa kuanzisha makampuni ya umma kwa lengo kuu la kukusanya sarafu za kidijitali (cryptocurrency) unakabiliwa na ukweli mchungu. Wakati bei za Bitcoin zikishuka, mkakati wa "Digital-Asset Treasury" (DAT), ambao wakati mmoja ulikuwa kama mbio za dhahabu kwa wawekezaji, unaona mikataba mikubwa ikifeli na bei za hisa zikishuka kwa kasi.

Kuporomoka kwa Muamala wa ReserveOne-M3

Pigo kubwa kwa sekta hii lilitokea wakati muungano wa dola bilioni 1 kati ya ReserveOne Inc. na SPAC ya M3-Brigade Acquisition V Corp. ulipofeli. Licha ya kuwa na washirika mashuhuri, akiwemo Waziri wa Biashara wa zamani wa Marekani Wilbur Ross, mkataba huo ulisitishwa kufuatia shinikizo kubwa kutoka kwa wawekezaji wakuu.

Kwa mujibu wa vyanzo vinavyofahamu suala hilo, wawekezaji wawili wakubwa walidai kusitishwa kwa mkataba huo kwa sababu waliamini kuwa hisa za ReserveOne bila shaka zingouzwa kwa bei ya chini kuliko thamani halisi ya mali zao (net asset value). Kushuka kwa Bitcoin na tokeni nyingine tangu tangazo la mkataba huo karibu mwaka mmoja iliyopita, pamoja na ada nzito zinazodaiwa kwa mabenki na wadhamini, kulifanya muamala huo usiwe na tija kiuchumi. Kushindwa huku kunaonyesha pengo linalozidi kuongezeka kati ya tathmini za SPAC na thamani halisi ya mali za crypto zinazomilikiwa.

Kupotea kwa 90% ya Soko la Avalanche Treasury

Ukali wa soko dhidi ya mfumo wa DAT unaonekana zaidi katika utendaji wa makampuni ambayo tayari yameingia kwenye soko la hisa. Avalanche Treasury Corp., ambayo iliungana na Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp. mnamo Juni 11, imekuwa mfano wa onyo.

Tangu wanahisa walipopitisha muungano huo, hisa za Avalanche Treasury zimepata hasara kubwa, zikishuka karibu 90% na kuuzwa kwa takriban senti 85. Hasara hii kubwa katika mtaji wa soko (market capitalization) inaonyesha mwelekeo mpana ambapo DATs zilipoteza thamani ya takriban dola bilioni 62 kati ya kilele cha Bitcoin mwezi Oktoba na mapema Juni.

"Saylor Playbook" Inakabiliwa na Mtihani Mgumu

Mwelekeo wa makampuni kubadilisha mwelekeo kuelekea ukusanyaji wa crypto ulianzishwa na Michael Saylor, ambaye aligeuza MicroStrategy kuwa kampuni inayozingatia Bitcoin. Wakati Strategy Inc. (zamani MicroStrategy) ilipata mafanikio makubwa, wafuasi wengi—kama vile Metaplanet, BitMine, na Twenty One Capital—wanapata shida kuiga mkondo huo katika soko la kushuka (bear market).

Industry experts suggest that the current market is acting as a "decisive filter." Jan-Philip Grabs of Areta notes that the DAT trade has stopped working because raising equity to buy crypto has become dilutive. The survival of these firms now depends on a fundamental shift:

  • Pure Accumulators: Companies that exist solely as capital-market vehicles to hold tokens are likely to struggle or fail.
  • Operating Companies: Firms that use crypto holdings as a treasury while building genuine payment infrastructures or operating businesses are seen as the only viable long-term players.

Uncertain Future for BSTR Holdings

The volatility extends to companies still waiting to go public. BSTR Holdings Inc., led by Bitcoin infrastructure veteran Adam Back, is currently in limbo. Despite a board recommendation to proceed with a merger via a Cantor Fitzgerald-linked SPAC, the fate of the $1.5 billion deal remains uncertain as investors weigh the risks of the current crypto climate.

Key Takeaways

  • Economic Unviability: High transaction fees and declining token prices are making SPAC-led crypto mergers mathematically unattractive for major investors.
  • Severe Devaluation: Publicly traded digital-asset treasury firms have seen massive losses, with some examples like Avalanche Treasury losing 90% of their value.
  • Shift in Strategy: To survive, DATs must evolve from simple "crypto accumulators" into genuine operating companies with underlying business models.