Damodaran Aonya Kuhusu Mapambano ya Trilioni za Dola Kuhusu SpaceX na OpenAI Katika S&P 500

Mazingira ya uwekezaji wa kimataifa wa pasifu (passive investing) yanakabiliwa na mabadiliko makubwa huku majitu ya trilioni za dola kama SpaceX, OpenAI, na Anthropic yakijiandaa kwa uorodheshaji wa hadhara. Profesa wa NYU Stern, Aswath Damodaran, aonya kuwa juhudi za kuunganisha mashirika haya makubwa yanayopata hasara katika S&P 500 zinaweza kubadilisha kabisa wasifu wa hatari na ukuaji wa kielezo (index) hicho.

Mgogoro Kati ya Ukuaji na Utawala

Wakati SpaceX ikitengeneza historia kufuatia IPO yake kubwa, mvutano umezuka kati ya uhalisia wa soko na mbinu za kielezo. S&P Dow Jones Indices kwa sasa inadumisha sheria inayozitaka kampuni kuwa na angalau mwaka mmoja wa biashara ya hadhara kabla ya kuwa na sifa za kujiunga na S&P 500. Sheria hii inachelewesha kwa uhakika uingizaji wa kampuni kubwa kama SpaceX, OpenAI, na Anthropic hadi angalau mwaka 2027.

Damodaran anaashiria kitendawili kikubwa: ingawa S&P 500 inauzwa kama kielezo cha thamani kubwa (large-cap index), kwa sasa inajumuisha nje baadhi ya kampuni zenye thamani kubwa zaidi ya soko zilizopo. Hata hivyo, "mtaalamu wa tathmini" (valuation guru) anaonya dhidi ya kuharakisha mchakato huo. Anahoji kuwa hata mwaka mmoja baada ya kuorodheshwa, kampuni hizi zinaweza bado kuwa biashara zinazopata hasara zenye "hadithi za kutisha za utawala wa kampuni" na mifumo ya biashara ambayo bado inakua.

Jinsi Ongezeko la Trilioni za Dola Linavyobadilisha Kielezo

Uingizaji wa mashirika makubwa kama haya si suala la kuongeza majina kwenye orodha tu; unabadilisha DNA yenyewe ya S&P 500. Kwa sababu kielezo hicho ni mfumo wa free-float uliowekwa uzito kulingana na thamani ya soko (market-cap-weighted), kuongeza kampuni za kiwango hiki kutakuwa na athari kubwa:

  • Mapato na Hatari: Ingawa kigawanyo cha kielezo (index divisor) kinarekebishwa ili kuzuia athari za haraka za kimekanika, wasifu wa msingi utahamia kwenye hatari kubwa zaidi na athari ya muda mfupi kwenye mapato ya jumla.
  • Uwezo wa Ukuaji: Mwelekeo wa muda mrefu wa kielezo unaweza kuona ongezeko la ukuaji kadiri viongozi hawa wa AI na teknolojia ya anga wanavyokomaa.
  • Mienendo ya Nguvu: Damodaran anapendekeza kuwa S&P inazihitaji kampuni hizi zaidi kuliko kampuni hizi zinavyohitaji kielezo hicho. Hivyo basi, kampuni hizi zina uwezekano mdogo wa kurekebisha shughuli zao zenye gharama kubwa ili kukidhi mahitaji makali ya kielezo isipokuwa kama S&P italegeza sheria zake.

Kukanusha Hadithi ya Uingizaji wa Kielezo

A critical takeaway for investors is the debunking of the "index inclusion windfall." Many retail and institutional investors operate under the assumption that being added to the S&P 500 guarantees a stock rally. Damodaran’s analysis of 715 additions and 711 deletions between 1995 and 2021 suggests otherwise.

The empirical evidence shows that the "bump" in stock prices following inclusion has largely disappeared over the last two decades. In fact, companies added to the index are now more likely to underperform than outperform in the 12 months following their entry. He cites Tesla’s December 2020 inclusion as a prime example, noting that the stock massively underperformed the small REIT it replaced in the index.

Key Takeaways

  • Delayed Entry: Due to existing S&P rules requiring one year of trading, mega-caps like SpaceX and OpenAI likely won't join the S&P 500 until 2027 at the earliest.
  • Altered Fundamentals: Adding trillion-dollar, loss-making companies will increase the index's overall risk profile and impact aggregate earnings.
  • Diminishing Returns: The historical "index effect"—where inclusion leads to a guaranteed price surge—has largely eroded, making index-based trading strategies increasingly unreliable.