The Trillion-Dollar Battle: SpaceX, OpenAI, and the Future of the S&P 500

As private giants like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic prepare for massive public listings, a high-stakes tug-of-war is emerging over their inclusion in the S&P 500. NYU Stern Professor Aswath Damodaran warns that integrating these trillion-dollar entities could fundamentally alter the risk and earnings profile of the world's most influential stock index.

The Dilemma of Trillion-Dollar "Work in Progress" Companies

The recent blockbuster IPO of SpaceX has ignited a debate regarding how quickly mega-cap private companies should be fast-tracked into the S&P 500. Damodaran points out a significant contradiction: while the S&P 500 aims to represent the largest US-listed companies, it currently excludes some of the market's most valuable players due to strict eligibility rules.

However, Damodaran warns that these companies are not yet stable blue-chip entities. He notes that even a year after listing, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will likely remain "money-losing businesses" with business models that are still "works in progress." Furthermore, he describes them as potential "corporate governance horror stories," suggesting that S&P Dow Jones Indices must balance market representation with the need for profitability and stability.

S&P 500 Rules and the Delayed Entry

To manage this transition and mitigate uncertainty, S&P Dow Jones Indices has maintained its rule requiring at least one year of active trading before a company becomes eligible for the index. This decision effectively pushes the potential inclusion of SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic into 2027 at the earliest.

While the index needs these companies to maintain its relevance as a "large-cap" benchmark, Damodaran argues that the power dynamic favors the companies. He suggests that these trillion-dollar giants have little incentive to bend their operations to meet index requirements if those requirements prove costly, leaving S&P to be the party that eventually adapts.

The Myth of the "Index Inclusion Windfall"

Jambo muhimu la kuzingatia kwa wawekezaji ni jinsi Damodaran alivyofichua ukweli kuhusu "athari ya kuingizwa kwenye kielelezo" (index inclusion effect). Wafanyabiashara wengi wanaamini kuwa kuongezwa kwenye S&P 500 kunahakikisha kupanda kwa bei kwa muda mrefu, lakini takwimu za kitafiti zinaonyesha tofauti. Akichambua utafiti wa zaidi ya ongezeko na uondoshaji wa kampuni 1,400 kati ya mwaka 1995 na 2021, Damodaran anabainisha kuwa "ongezeko" la bei linalohusishwa na kuingizwa kwenye kielelezo hilo limepotea kwa kiasi kikubwa katika miongo miwili iliyopita.

Kwa kweli, anaeleza kuwa kampuni zinazoongezwa kwenye kielelezo hicho sasa zina uwezekano mkubwa wa kufanya vibaya kuliko kufanya vizuri katika miezi 12 inayofuata baada ya kuingia. Anataja kuingizwa kwa Tesla mnamo Desemba 2020 kama mfano mkuu; licha ya sifa nyingi, hisa hiyo ilifanya vibaya sana ikilinganishwa na REIT ndogo iliyochukuliwa nafasi yake kwenye kielelezo hicho.

Mabadiliko ya Msingi ya Kielelezo

Ikiwa kampuni hizi kubwa zisizopata faida hatimaye zitajumuishwa, athari yake haitakuwa mabadiliko ya kawaida tu ya kiufundi. Ingawa kigawanyo cha kielelezo (index divisor) hurekebishwa ili kuzuia athari za papo hapo za bei, misingi ya msingi (fundamental DNA) ya S&P 500 itabadilika. Wawekezaji wanapaswa kujiandaa kwa kielelezo kitakachojulikana kwa hatari kubwa ya jumla, kupungua kwa mapato ya jumla kwa muda mfupi, na uwezekano wa makadirio ya ukuaji wa muda mrefu yaliyoongezeka.

Mambo Muhimu ya Kuzingatia

• Uingizaji wa Kuchelewa: Kutokana na sheria ya biashara ya mwaka mmoja, IPO za kampuni kubwa sana (mega-cap) kama SpaceX na OpenAI huenda zisitingie kwenye S&P 500 hadi mwaka 2027 angalau.
• Mabadiliko ya Msingi: Kuongeza kampuni za trilioni za dola zinazopata hasara kutazidisha kiwango cha hatari cha kielelezo na kuathiri mapato yake ya jumla.
• Kupotea kwa Faida ya Kielelezo (Index Premium): Ushahidi wa kitafiti unaonyesha kuwa ongezeko la bei la kihistoria baada ya kuingizwa kwenye S&P 500 limepotea, jambo linalofanya "biashara ya kielelezo" (index trading) kuwa mkakati wenye hatari.