The Trillion-Dollar Battle for the S&P 500: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Risk

As private giants like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic prepare for massive public listings, a fundamental tension is emerging regarding the future of the S&P 500. NYU Stern Professor Aswath Damodaran warns that the inclusion of these trillion-dollar entities could fundamentally alter the risk and earnings profile of the world’s most influential stock index.

The Dilemma of Trillion-Dollar Giants

The landscape of the S&P 500 is facing a reckoning. Following SpaceX’s historic IPO on June 12, 2026, the market is anticipating mega-cap listings from AI leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic. This creates a paradox for S&P Dow Jones Indices: the index claims to represent large-cap US companies, yet it currently excludes some of the largest market-cap players in the world.

However, Damodaran notes that these companies are not "plug-and-play" additions. He describes them as "money-losing businesses" with business models that remain works in progress and "corporate governance horror stories." To manage this, S&P has reaffirmed its rule requiring at least one year of public trading before eligibility, effectively pushing any inclusion of SpaceX or OpenAI to 2027 at the earliest.

Shifting the Index Fundamentals

While adding these giants won't immediately move the index level due to divisor adjustments, it will fundamentally change the index's DNA. Damodaran argues that the inclusion of such massive, unprofitable entities will result in:

  • Increased aggregate risk: High-volatility stocks entering a benchmark.
  • A near-term hit to earnings: The heavy weight of non-profitable companies diluting the index’s aggregate earnings.
  • Potential long-term growth: The upside of capturing the AI and space-tech revolutions.

Crucially, Damodaran suggests the power dynamic has shifted. "S&P needs these companies in its index more than they need to be in the index," he asserts, implying that the index providers may eventually bend their rules to accommodate these massive market movers.

Kukanusha Dhana Potofu ya Uingizaji kwenye Kielezo (Index)

Jambo kuu la kuzingatia kwa wawekezaji wa India na wa kimataifa ni onyo dhidi ya mbinu za biashara za "kuingizwa kwenye kielezo" (index inclusion). Wawekezaji wengi wanaamini kuwa kuongezwa kwenye S&P 500 kunahakikisha kupanda kwa bei ya hisa. Damodaran anapinga hili, akitaja utafiti wa ongezeko la kampuni 715 kati ya mwaka 1995 na 2021 ambao unaonyesha kuwa "ongezeko la kielezo" (index bump) limepotea kwa kiasi kikubwa.

Kwa hakika, anaeleza kuwa kampuni zinazoongezwa kwenye S&P 500 sasa zina uwezekano mkubwa wa kufanya vibaya (underperform) kuliko kufanya vizuri (outperform) katika miezi 12 inayofuata kuingia kwao. Anataja uingizaji wa Tesla mnamo Desemba 2020 kama mfano mkuu, ambapo hisa hiyo ilifanya vibaya sana ikilinganishwa na REIT ndogo iliyochukuliwa nafasi yake muda mfupi baada ya kujiunga na kielezo hicho.

Mambo Muhimu ya Kuzingatia

  • Uingizaji wa Kuchelewa: Kutokana na kanuni ya mwaka mmoja wa biashara ya S&P, kampuni za trilioni za dola kama SpaceX na OpenAI huenda zisijiunge na S&P 500 hadi angalau mwaka 2027.
  • Mabadiliko ya Kimuundo: Kuongeza kampuni hizi kutasogeza S&P 500 kuelekea hatari kubwa zaidi na mapato ya jumla ya chini zaidi, licha ya uwezekano wa ukuaji mkubwa wa muda mrefu.
  • Ongezeko la Kielezo linalopotea: "Ongezeko la bei" la kihistoria linaloonekana hisa inapojiunga na kielezo limefifia kwa kiasi kikubwa, jambo linalofanya iwe mbinu isiyoaminika kwa wafanyabiashara hai (active traders).