受燃油和汇率不利因素影响，印度航空公司面临利润下滑
由于地缘政治紧张局势和货币波动挤压利润空间，印度航空业正准备迎接充满挑战的财年。评级机构 Crisil 最近的一份报告表明，受燃油成本上升和外部经济压力共同影响，国内航空公司可能会出现营业利润大幅下降的情况。
盈利预测承压
根据评级机构 Crisil 发布的一份报告，印度国内航空公司的合并营业利润预计在本财年将下降 10% 至 15%。尽管该行业在上一个财年录得约 1900 亿卢比的营业利润，但目前预计该数字将降至 1600 亿至 1700 亿卢比之间。
利润下降的主要原因是航空公司无法通过提高票价将上升的成本完全转嫁给乘客，同时还需要进行必要的运力优化。报告指出，即使中东冲突得到解决，结构性的成本上升也可能持续存在。
航空燃油与汇率的双重打击
航空燃油 (ATF) 仍然是航空公司最显著的可变支出。在正常情况下，航空燃油约占运营支出的 40%，但在极端波动时期，这一比例可能会飙升至近 60%。中东冲突导致全球 ATF 价格较冲突前水平上涨了 50% 以上。尽管价格已从每桶 145 美元的峰值回落至 125 美元以下，但仍大幅高于上一财年 90 美元的平均水平。
印度卢比的贬值进一步加重了这一负担。由于绝大多数航空公司支出（包括飞机租赁、维护和燃油）都以外币计价，卢比走软显著推高了印度航空公司的运营成本。
租赁成本上升与机队扩张
尽管航空公司正在积极扩张机队以满足日益增长的需求，但这种增长也付出了高昂的代价。预计本财年的租赁费用将增长约 15%，达到估计的 2700 至 2800 亿卢比。
Crisil warns that the combination of moderating operating profits and rising lease obligations could weaken the ability of airlines to service these leases through internal accruals alone. While the government’s decision to cap domestic ATF price hikes at 25% (effective from April 1, 2026) provides some long-term cushion, the immediate financial strain remains acute.
Global Context: A Sector in Turbulence
The struggle in India is mirrored globally. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has also lowered its global airline profit forecasts for 2026. IATA Director General Willie Walsh highlighted that the simultaneous surge in jet fuel prices and flight route disruptions in the Gulf region have created a perfect storm for the industry. Despite these headwinds, passenger demand remains resilient, suggesting that while profitability is under strain, the underlying traffic growth remains strong.
Key Takeaways
- Profit Decline: Domestic airline operating profits are projected to drop from Rs 19,000 crore to as low as Rs 16,000 crore this fiscal.
- Cost Drivers: High ATF prices (peaking at $145/barrel) and rising lease rentals (expected to reach up to Rs 28,000 crore) are the primary margin killers.
- Currency Impact: Rupee depreciation is intensifying costs, as major expenses like maintenance and fuel are paid in foreign denominations.