Indian Airlines Face Profit Slump Amid Fuel Volatility and Forex Pressures
The Indian aviation sector is bracing for a challenging fiscal year, with operating profits expected to contract by 10% to 15%. A recent report by Crisil highlights how a combination of geopolitical tensions, rising fuel costs, and currency depreciation is squeezing the margins of domestic carriers.
The ATF Factor: Fuel Costs Surge Amid Middle East Conflict
Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) remains the single largest variable expense for airlines, typically accounting for 40% of operating costs. However, during periods of extreme market volatility, this share can escalate to nearly 60%. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed global ATF prices more than 50% above pre-conflict levels, significantly inflating the cost of flying.
While global ATF prices have moderated from a peak of approximately $145 per barrel in early June to below $125 currently, they remain significantly higher than the $90 average recorded in the previous fiscal year. Crisil estimates that the combined operating profit of domestic airlines could drop to between Rs 16,000 crore and Rs 17,000 crore this year, down from the Rs 19,000 crore recorded in the previous financial year.
Rising Lease Rentals and Rupee Depreciation
Beyond fuel, Indian carriers are grappling with two other major financial headwinds: rising lease costs and a weakening rupee. As airlines aggressively expand their fleets to meet growing demand, lease rental expenses are projected to rise by approximately 15%, reaching an estimated Rs 27,000–28,000 crore this fiscal.
The depreciation of the Indian rupee further exacerbates the situation. Because essential expenses—including fuel, aircraft leases, and maintenance—are largely denominated in foreign currencies, a weaker rupee directly inflates the cost of operations. The convergence of moderating operating profits and rising lease obligations may weaken the ability of airlines to service these leases through internal accruals alone.
Global Turbulence and Capacity Constraints
インド国内航空会社の苦境は、決して孤立した問題ではありません。それは世界の航空業界における広範な傾向を反映しています。国際航空運送協会（IATA）も、湾岸地域における飛行ルートの混乱やジェット燃料価格の予期せぬ高騰を理由に、2026年の世界的な航空会社の利益予測を引き下げています。
世界的に旅客需要は底堅く推移しているものの、航空会社は難しい舵取りを迫られています。運営コストの上昇と供給能力の制約により、航空運賃は高止まりする可能性が高く、これは一部のコストを相殺する助けにはなるものの、収益性をさらに圧迫することなく積極的に市場シェアを獲得する能力を制限する恐れもあります。
主なポイント
- 利益の縮小: 国内航空会社の営業利益は10〜15%減少すると予測されており、今会計年度は16,000〜17,000億ルピーにとどまる可能性があります。
- 三重苦: 航空会社は、航空燃料（ATF）価格の高騰、リース料の15%上昇、そして外貨建てコストに対するルピー安の影響という、三重の圧迫に直面しています。
- 燃料価格の変動: 世界的な燃料価格は最近のピークから落ち着きを見せているものの、前年度に見られた1バレルあたり平均90ドルを大幅に上回る水準が続いています。