Jefferies Raises Polycab Target Price to Rs 10,920: 5 Key Growth Drivers

Polycab India shares saw a significant uptick as international brokerage firm Jefferies reiterated its "Buy" rating and raised the target price to Rs 10,920. Despite a 30% rally in the stock during 2026, analysts remain bullish, forecasting a 14% upside from current market levels driven by structural growth and market leadership.

Dominating the Organized Cables & Wires Market

One of the primary reasons for the optimistic outlook is Polycab’s aggressive expansion in the organised sector. The company has successfully captured significant market share, rising from approximately 18% in FY20 to an estimated 30-31% in FY26. This dominance is reflected in the Cables & Wires (C&W) segment, which accounted for nearly 87% of FY26 revenue. This segment delivered a robust 33% year-on-year growth, fueled by 18% volume growth and 16% price-led growth. Additionally, the launch of the 'Etira' brand has allowed Polycab to penetrate tier 2-5 markets, effectively siphoning business from unorganised players.

Tapping into the Data Centre Boom

The digital infrastructure surge presents a massive tailwind for Polycab. Data centres require high cable intensity, with cables accounting for an estimated 8-10% of total data centre capital expenditure (capex). Jefferies highlighted Polycab's existing presence in this niche, noting its involvement in data centre projects for Vodafone Idea through Vertiv. This positioning allows the company to capitalize on the massive capital inflows directed toward India's digital landscape.

A Robust and Diversified Order Pipeline

Polycab maintains a healthy order book, standing at Rs 11,300 crore as of March 2026. A significant portion of this is driven by government-led initiatives such as RDSS and BharatNet. The BharatNet project alone offers an estimated revenue potential of approximately Rs 8,000 crore (excluding GST). Furthermore, the company is looking toward long-term expansion with a new extra-high voltage (EHV) cable plant, which is expected to be commissioned by the end of CY26 and contribute to revenue starting in FY28.

آمدنی کا اسٹریٹجک تنوع

کمپنی کی مضبوطی آمدنی کے ایک بہتر تقسیم شدہ امتزاج سے حاصل ہے، جو کسی بھی ایک شعبے پر انحصار کو کم کرتی ہے۔ اس کی تفصیل درج ذیل ہے:

نمایاں طور پر، صارفین کا ارتکاز (concentration) کم ہے، جس میں ٹاپ 10 صارفین کل فروخت میں صرف 21% حصہ ڈالتے ہیں، جو مخصوص کلائنٹس کی وجہ سے ہونے والی مندی کے خطرے کو کم کرتا ہے۔

آمدنی کا مضبوط مومینٹم

Jefferies نے اپنی ٹارگٹ ویلیویشن ملٹی پل (valuation multiple) کو آمدنی کے 41 گنا تک بڑھا دیا ہے، جو کہ اس کے پانچ سالہ تاریخی اوسط 37 گنا سے 10% زیادہ ہے۔ یہ Polycab کی FY26 اور FY29 کے درمیان 22% کا Earnings Per Share (EPS) CAGR فراہم کرنے کی صلاحیت پر اعتماد کو ظاہر کرتا ہے۔ اس ترقی کی توقع بنیادی C&W کاروبار میں حجم کے پھیلاؤ اور Fast Moving Electrical Goods (FMEG) سیکٹر میں مارجن میں بہتری کی وجہ سے ہے۔

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