Jefferies Raises Polycab Target Price to Rs 10,920: 5 Key Growth Drivers

Polycab India shares saw a significant uptick as international brokerage firm Jefferies reiterated its "Buy" rating and raised the target price to Rs 10,920. Despite a 30% rally in the stock during 2026, analysts remain bullish, forecasting a 14% upside from current market levels driven by structural growth and market leadership.

Dominating the Organized Cables & Wires Market

One of the primary reasons for the optimistic outlook is Polycab’s aggressive expansion in the organised sector. The company has successfully captured significant market share, rising from approximately 18% in FY20 to an estimated 30-31% in FY26. This dominance is reflected in the Cables & Wires (C&W) segment, which accounted for nearly 87% of FY26 revenue. This segment delivered a robust 33% year-on-year growth, fueled by 18% volume growth and 16% price-led growth. Additionally, the launch of the 'Etira' brand has allowed Polycab to penetrate tier 2-5 markets, effectively siphoning business from unorganised players.

Tapping into the Data Centre Boom

The digital infrastructure surge presents a massive tailwind for Polycab. Data centres require high cable intensity, with cables accounting for an estimated 8-10% of total data centre capital expenditure (capex). Jefferies highlighted Polycab's existing presence in this niche, noting its involvement in data centre projects for Vodafone Idea through Vertiv. This positioning allows the company to capitalize on the massive capital inflows directed toward India's digital landscape.

A Robust and Diversified Order Pipeline

Polycab maintains a healthy order book, standing at Rs 11,300 crore as of March 2026. A significant portion of this is driven by government-led initiatives such as RDSS and BharatNet. The BharatNet project alone offers an estimated revenue potential of approximately Rs 8,000 crore (excluding GST). Furthermore, the company is looking toward long-term expansion with a new extra-high voltage (EHV) cable plant, which is expected to be commissioned by the end of CY26 and contribute to revenue starting in FY28.

전략적 매출 다각화

회사의 회복 탄력성은 잘 분산된 매출 구성에 의해 뒷받침되며, 이는 특정 부문에 대한 의존도를 낮춰줍니다. 세부 내역은 다음과 같습니다:

특히, 상위 10개 고객사가 전체 매출에서 차지하는 비중이 21%에 불과하여 고객 집중도가 낮게 유지되고 있으며, 이는 특정 고객사의 경기 침체로 인한 리스크를 완화합니다.

강력한 수익 모멘텀

Jefferies는 목표 밸류에이션 배수를 5년 평균인 37배보다 10% 높은 41배로 상향 조정했습니다. 이는 FY26에서 FY29 사이 Polycab이 주당순이익(EPS) 연평균 성장률(CAGR) 22%를 달성할 수 있다는 자신감을 반영합니다. 이러한 성장은 핵심 C&W 사업의 물량 확대와 FMEG(Fast Moving Electrical Goods) 부문의 마진 개선에 의해 주도될 것으로 예상됩니다.

핵심 요약