India’s Travel Boom: Why Motilal Oswal Favours TBO Tek and Ixigo

India's travel and leisure sector is undergoing a massive structural shift, moving from a fragmented offline market to a high-tech, digitally-led ecosystem. As disposable incomes rise and digital adoption accelerates, online travel platforms are positioned to capture a significant portion of this expanding market.

A Massive Market Expansion on the Horizon

The Indian online travel market is poised for explosive growth, significantly outperforming global trends. According to recent projections, the market is expected to expand from approximately INR 2.1 trillion in FY23 to INR 3.8 trillion by FY28, representing a robust CAGR of around 13%.

A critical driver of this growth is the increasing digital penetration. Currently, online channels account for about 54% of total travel bookings, but this is expected to rise to nearly 65% in the coming years. This shift is being fueled by favorable demographics, improved transportation infrastructure, and a consumer trend toward "experience-led" spending. Furthermore, the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is set to revolutionize the sector through hyper-personalized planning and real-time decision-making.

TBO Tek: Leveraging Global Scale and Synergies

Motilal Oswal has maintained a "BUY" stance on TBO Tek, highlighting its resilient performance despite geopolitical disruptions. A major catalyst for the company is the integration of Classic Vacations, which is expected to drive significant operating synergies and international scale.

The company's financial momentum is noteworthy: in 4QFY26, revenue surged by 83% YoY, bolstered by the consolidation of Classic Vacations, while organic revenue grew by 21% YoY. Looking ahead to the FY25-28E period, analysts expect a powerful growth trajectory with a revenue CAGR of 37% and a PAT (Profit After Tax) CAGR of 30%. This growth is expected to be driven by high-margin segments like hotels, holiday packages, and ancillary services.

Ixigo: Dominating the Tier-2 and Tier-3 Markets

Le Travenues Technology (Ixigo) has carved out a unique niche by capturing the heart of middle India. As the second-largest online travel agency (OTA) by FY26 gross transaction value (GTV) of INR 187 billion, Ixigo boasts a monthly active user base of 85 million.

Ce qui distingue Ixigo, c'est sa pénétration massive des marchés non métropolitains ; environ 94 % de ses réservations ont soit une origine, soit une destination dans des villes non-tier-1. L'entreprise est une force dominante dans la billetterie ferroviaire, détenant une part de marché d'environ 60 %. En utilisant une stratégie multi-applications et multi-marques, Ixigo a réussi à maintenir un coût d'acquisition client structurellement plus bas. Les analystes prévoient un TCAC de l'EBITDA massif de 59 % pour Ixigo jusqu'à l'exercice 2028, avec des marges qui devraient s'améliorer de 400 points de base pour atteindre 10 % grâce au levier opérationnel.

Points clés

  • Croissance exponentielle du marché : Le marché du voyage en ligne en Inde devrait atteindre 3,8 billions de roupies (INR) d'ici l'exercice 2028, avec un TCAC de 13 %, dépassant ainsi les tendances mondiales.
  • Expansion mondiale de TBO Tek : Portée par l'intégration de Classic Vacations, TBO Tek devrait connaître un TCAC de son chiffre d'affaires de 37 % jusqu'à l'exercice 2028, en se concentrant sur les segments d'hôtels et de services auxiliaires à forte marge.
  • Dominance régionale d'Ixigo : Avec 94 % des réservations provenant de ou à destination de villes non-tier-1, Ixigo est le leader de la billetterie ferroviaire et se prépare à un TCAC de l'EBITDA de 59 %.