Jefferies Raises Polycab Target Price to Rs 10,920 Amid Growth Surge

Polycab India shares surged up to 4% on Wednesday following a bullish update from international brokerage Jefferies, which reiterated its 'Buy' rating. Despite a significant 30% rally in 2026, the brokerage has raised its target price to Rs 10,920, forecasting a further upside of 14% from current market levels.

Dominating the Organized Cables and Wires Market

A primary driver for Jefferies' optimistic outlook is Polycab's aggressive expansion in the Cables and Wires (C&W) segment. The company has demonstrated remarkable market share gains, with its organized market share climbing to 30-31% in FY26, up from approximately 18% in FY20.

The C&W segment remains the backbone of the company, accounting for nearly 87% of FY26 revenue and delivering 33% year-on-year growth. This growth was fueled by an 18% increase in volumes and 16% price-led growth. Notably, the launch of the 'Etira' brand in tier 2 to tier 5 markets has allowed Polycab to effectively capture market share from unorganized players.

Capitalizing on the Data Centre and Digital Boom

Jefferies identified data centres as a massive emerging growth lever. Data centres require significantly higher cable intensity compared to other sectors; cables account for an estimated 8-10% of total data centre capex, whereas they represent only about 3% in standard industrial projects. Polycab is already strategically positioned in this space, participating in data centre projects for Vodafone Idea through Vertiv, making it a key beneficiary of India's digital infrastructure expansion.

A Robust Order Book and Infrastructure Tailwinds

Polycab maintains a formidable order book, standing at Rs 11,300 crore as of March 2026. A significant portion of this pipeline is driven by government-led initiatives such as RDSS and BharatNet. The BharatNet project alone offers an estimated revenue potential of approximately Rs 8,000 crore (excluding GST).

Looking ahead, the company is expanding its manufacturing capabilities with a new extra-high voltage (EHV) cable plant, which is expected to be commissioned by the end of CY26, with revenue contributions starting from FY28.

Diversified Revenue Streams and Financial Strength

同社のレジリエンスは、集中リスクを軽減する高度に多様化された収益ミックスによって支えられています。

重要な点として、Polycabは顧客集中度が低く、上位10社の顧客による売上構成比は全体のわずか21%にとどまっています。

将来の収益見通し

Jefferiesは、Polycabが2026年度から2029年度にかけて、22%という驚異的な1株当たり利益（EPS）の年平均成長率（CAGR）を達成すると予測しています。この成長は、中核となるC&W事業の持続的な販売量の増加と、FMEGセグメントにおける利益率の改善によって牽引される見込みです。銅価格の変動や住宅需要の減速といったリスクは存在するものの、同証券会社は目標バリュエーション倍率を利益の41倍に引き上げました。

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