Yen Nears 40-Year Low as US Dollar Strengthens Amid Geopolitical Tensions
The Japanese yen is facing significant pressure, hovering near its weakest levels in decades as the US dollar gains momentum. While market traders monitor potential intervention from Tokyo, geopolitical uncertainties involving US-Iran relations are adding volatility to the global forex landscape.
Geopolitical Uncertainty Drives Dollar Strength
The US dollar index rose 0.3% to a one-year high of 101.07 during recent Asian trading, fueled by heightened geopolitical risks. A primary driver was the sudden withdrawal of US Vice President JD Vance from planned negotiations in Switzerland aimed at implementing a 14-point peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
As these complex talks hang in the balance, traders are reassessing the global risk landscape. This uncertainty has bolstered the "safe-haven" appeal of the greenback, causing it to trade flat against the yen at 161.455, near a two-year low.
The Yen’s Struggle Despite Bank of Japan Action
Despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently hiking interest rates to a 31-year high, the yen has found little relief. Analysts from DBS noted that large speculative "short" positions on the yen have not eased, undermining the central bank's recent policy shift.
Investor confidence is further rattled by concerns regarding the spending plans of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Additionally, while Japan's annual core inflation remained below the 2% target for the fourth consecutive month in May due to fuel subsidies, long-term outlooks are different. Capital Economics predicts that the pass-through of energy costs could lift inflation to approximately 3.5% by early 2027.
Speculation of Massive Government Intervention
As the yen approaches critical psychological levels, the market is bracing for potential intervention by the Ministry of Finance. Market analysts, including Tony Sycamore from IG, suggest that the Japanese government may move to defend the 161.95 level.
Bukti bagi pertahanan sedemikian boleh menjadi besar; intervensi sebelum ini pada bulan April dan Mei melibatkan kira-kira ¥11.7 trilion. Ini mewakili kira-kira 11-12% daripada jumlah rizab Jepun yang digunakan dalam tempoh yang sangat singkat. Pakar memberi amaran bahawa jika yen terus merosot, Kementerian perlu menjadi semakin selektif dengan "daya tempur" mereka untuk mengekalkan kredibiliti pasaran dan memelihara bekalan rizab mereka.
Perubahan Jangkaan terhadap Rizab Persekutuan AS
Selari dengan kejatuhan yen, dolar AS disokong oleh perubahan jangkaan mengenai dasar monetari AS. Pedagang semakin mengambil kira pendirian yang lebih agresif daripada Rizab Persekutuan untuk memerangi inflasi.
Menurut alat FedWatch daripada CME Group, kebarangkalian tersirat bagi kenaikan kadar sebanyak 25 mata asas pada mesyuarat Julai telah melonjak kepada 39.6%, satu peningkatan besar daripada hanya 8% seminggu yang lalu. Penilaian semula dasar Fed ini memberikan dorongan kuat kepada dolar berbanding bakul mata wang global, termasuk euro dan dolar Australia.
Ringkasan Utama
- Ketidaktentuan Geopolitik: Tergendalnya rundingan damai AS-Iran telah mencetuskan pelarian kepada dolar AS, menolak yen ke tahap terendah dalam beberapa dekad.
- Had Dasar BoJ: Walaupun terdapat kenaikan kadar faedah, kedudukan jangka pendek spekulatif masih berterusan, mencetuskan kebimbangan terhadap intervensi penjualan yen secara besar-besaran oleh Kementerian Kewangan.
- Pertaruhan Kenaikan Kadar Fed: Pasaran sedang mengambil kira dengan pantas kebarangkalian yang lebih tinggi bagi kenaikan kadar Rizab Persekutuan AS pada bulan Julai untuk memerangi inflasi yang berterusan.