Petrol and Diesel Prices May Drop as Cheaper Crude Oil Reaches India

Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has signaled potential relief for Indian consumers, suggesting that retail fuel prices could ease as cheaper crude oil shipments reach domestic refiners. While current stocks are tied to higher-priced international markets, the arrival of lower-cost crude offers a glimmer of hope for a reduction in petrol and diesel rates.

The Lag Between Crude Costs and Retail Prices

The primary reason for the current price stability is the inventory cycle held by Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs). Minister Puri clarified during a press conference in Sonbhadra that OMCs are currently processing stocks of crude oil purchased at higher international rates.

Because of this lag, any benefits from the recent softening of global crude oil prices will not be reflected in petrol and diesel pumps immediately. "When crude purchased at lower prices reaches them, there is a possibility of a reduction in fuel prices," Puri stated, highlighting that the transition from international market shifts to domestic retail pricing takes time.

Government Strategy Amid Global Volatility

The Minister defended the government's handling of fuel pricing, noting that India has managed to shield consumers from the extreme volatility seen in global energy markets, particularly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and near the Strait of Hormuz.

To maintain stability, the Narendra Modi government has actively intervened by reducing central excise duties on petrol and diesel in November 2021, May 2022, and more recently. These interventions have effectively absorbed a burden of approximately Rs 10 per litre for the consumer. Puri noted that while petrol and diesel prices have seen a limited rise of about Rs 7.60 per litre, this is relatively controlled compared to the global landscape; he even remarked that among 193 UN member states, only Japan has seen a lower increase in petroleum prices than India.

Pressure on Oil Marketing Companies

Despite the efforts to protect the end-consumer, the financial strain on OMCs is significant. The Minister revealed that oil marketing companies are currently facing losses of approximately Rs 1,000 crore per day.

原油価格の高騰とルピー安の組み合わせが、これらの企業の利益率を圧迫しています。最近の燃料価格の改定によって均衡を図ろうとする動きはあるものの、業界の専門家は、西アジアにおける地政学的な不安定さと為替変動という二重の圧力が、OMCの事業継続性に対して引き続き課題を突きつけていると警告しています。

主なポイント

• 価格低下の可能性: 現在の高値の原油在庫が底をつき、より安価な原油がインドの製油所に届き始めれば、ガソリンおよび軽油の小売価格は下落する可能性があります。
• 政府の介入: 中央政府は、世界的な価格高騰の影響を緩和するため、物品税の減税を通じて1リットルあたり約10ルピーのコストを負担しています。
• OMCへの財務的負担: 石油販売会社（OMC）は、高騰する調達コストと抑制された小売価格との乖離により、1日あたり約1,000クロール・ルピーという多額の損失を抱えています。