Jefferies Raises Polycab Target Price to Rs 10,920 Amid Growth Surge

Polycab India shares witnessed a significant uptick after international brokerage Jefferies raised its target price to Rs 10,920, reiterating a "Buy" rating. Despite a 30% rally in the stock during 2026, analysts remain bullish, forecasting a 14% upside driven by massive market share gains and emerging infrastructure opportunities.

Dominating the Organized Cables and Wires Market

A primary driver for Jefferies' optimistic outlook is Polycab's aggressive expansion in the Cables and Wires (C&W) segment. The company has successfully transitioned from an 18% organized market share in FY20 to an estimated 30-31% in FY26. This dominance is supported by the launch of the 'Etira' brand, which has allowed Polycab to capture market share from unorganized players in tier 2 to tier 5 markets.

In FY26, the C&W segment accounted for nearly 87% of total revenue, delivering a robust 33% year-on-year growth. This growth was fueled by an 18% increase in volume and a 16% rise in price-led growth, largely due to higher copper prices.

Capitalizing on the Data Centre and Digital Boom

Jefferies highlighted the burgeoning data centre sector as a high-margin growth engine for Polycab. Data centres require significantly higher cable intensity compared to standard industrial projects; while industrial projects see cables at roughly 3% of total capex, data centres require approximately 8-10%.

Polycab is already strategically positioned in this space, participating in data centre projects for Vodafone Idea through Vertiv. This exposure to digital infrastructure provides a significant tailwind as India scales its digital economy.

Robust Order Pipeline and Infrastructure Projects

The company’s financial stability is underpinned by a massive order book, which stood at Rs 11,300 crore as of March 2026. A significant portion of this pipeline is tied to large-scale government initiatives like BharatNet and the Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme (RDSS).

The BharatNet project alone offers an estimated revenue potential of approximately Rs 8,000 crore (excluding GST). Furthermore, Polycab is expanding its technical capabilities with a new extra-high voltage (EHV) cable plant, expected to be commissioned by the end of CY26, with revenue contributions slated to begin in FY28.

جریان‌های درآمدی متنوع و چشم‌انداز حاشیه سود

Polycab ترکیب درآمدی بسیار منعطفی را حفظ کرده است که ریسک تمرکز را کاهش می‌دهد. بخش B2B شرکت (برق، نفت و گاز، و مراکز داده) ۳۵٪ از فروش را تشکیل می‌دهد، در حالی که پروژه‌های دولتی ۳۰٪ سهم دارند. تقاضای مسکونی B2C ۲۰ تا ۲۵ درصد، بخش FMEG ۱۰ درصد و صادرات ۶ درصد را شامل می‌شود. قابل توجه است که ۱۰ مشتری برتر تنها ۲۱٪ از کل فروش را تشکیل می‌دهند که تضمین می‌کند شرکت بیش از حد به چند مشتری وابسته نیست.

Jefferies انتظار دارد Polycab بین سال‌های مالی ۲۶ تا ۲۹، نرخ رشد مرکب سالانه (CAGR) خیره‌کننده ۲۲ درصدی برای سود هر سهم (EPS) ارائه دهد که توسط رشد مداوم دو رقمی در کسب‌وکار C&W و بهبود حاشیه سود در بخش FMEG پشتیبانی می‌شود.

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