受厄尔尼诺现象和饲料短缺影响，牛奶价格可能在 7 月上涨
由于厄尔尼诺现象带来的威胁正在扰乱农业供应链，印度消费者在 7 月或 8 月可能会面临新一轮的牛奶价格上涨。行业专家警告称，季风降水不足可能会引发饲料和水源短缺，最终影响牛奶产量和乳制品采购成本。
厄尔尼诺现象对饲料和牛奶生产的影响
潜在价格上涨的主要驱动因素是厄尔尼诺现象带来的风险，该现象威胁到印度主要产奶地区的降雨量可能低于正常水平。降雨不足会直接导致饲料和可用水源的短缺，而这对于维持牲畜健康和产量至关重要。
当饲料变得稀缺且昂贵时，农民往往被迫减少牲畜数量，从而导致牛奶总产量的直接下降。Parag Milk Foods 主席 Devendra Shah 指出，虽然 5 月份价格已经上涨了约 2–3%，但如果降雨量持续不足，到 7 月份可能需要进一步上涨 3–4%。
此前的价格上涨与不断上升的运营成本
在今年早些时候，主要乳制品企业已经进行了价格调整，此次潜在的涨价紧随其后。5 月份，Amul 和 Mother Dairy 等行业巨头将牛奶价格每升提高了 2 卢比。
Amul 报告称，其价格涨幅约为每升 2.5–3.5%，并列举了几个复合因素：
- 向农民采购的成本上升。
- 牲畜饲料支出增加。
- 包装和燃料成本上升。
此外，Mother Dairy 强调，过去一年支付给农民的采购价格上涨了约 6%，这给乳制品公司带来了巨大的压力，迫使它们将这些成本转嫁给消费者。
行业应对与监测策略
尽管威胁确实存在，但主要的乳制品合作社正采取谨慎观察的态度。Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF) 总经理 Jayen Mehta 表示，目前对牛奶供应尚未产生直接影响。他指出，降雨不足通常只影响特定地区，而不会导致全国范围内的短缺。
Other major players are also preparing mitigation strategies:
- Amul: Is currently monitoring monsoon progress before committing to any further price revisions.
- Mother Dairy: Is closely tracking conditions across its entire procurement network to implement mitigation measures where necessary.
- Maharashtra Government: The Animal Husbandry Commissioner, Kiran Patil, has urged farmers to increase fodder production and plan for fodder crops immediately to safeguard livestock.
The situation remains critical in certain pockets, such as Tamil Nadu, where the state-run brand Aavin has already reported reduced supplies due to heatwave-related production impacts.
Key Takeaways
- Potential Price Surge: Milk prices could see an additional 3–4% increase by July if the monsoon remains deficient.
- Fodder Scarcity Risk: El Niño threatens to reduce rainfall, leading to fodder and water shortages that could force farmers to reduce cattle numbers.
- Compounding Factors: Previous price hikes in May were driven by rising procurement, feed, packaging, and fuel costs.